Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
